Luck and Incomplete Information - Deepstash

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Luck and Incomplete Information

Luck and Incomplete Information

Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information. 

You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive. You made a quality decision, but happenstance hit you upside the head anyhow.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.

People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing. 

  • Learn to examine your own beliefs. If you're certain about something, explore the opposing viewpoint.
  • Build a network of trusted advisors. Draw on people from a variety of backgrounds and belief systems. 
  • When you make decisions, think of the future. Prac...

  • Stop thinking in terms of right and wrong. Few things are ever 0% or 100% likely to occur. Instead, we should think in bets.
  • Before we commit to a course of action, we should think about possible outcomes and how likely each of those outcomes is to occur. Every choice carr...

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