Incomplete information and over-estimation - Deepstash

Bite-sized knowledge

to upgrade

your career

Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.

Incomplete information and over-estimation

Incomplete information and over-estimation

  • Much of what you need to know in life is hidden from you. You need to make decisions, but is still the victim of chance or uncertainty.
  • We tend to over-estimate the role of our own skills. The more people overestimate the importance of their own ability, the less flexible their decision making becomes.

STASHED IN:

333

created an idea from a article:

MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE

Tilting means realizing that your emotions are not separate from the logic of your decision making - for example, the despair that comes from bad luck, or the overconfidence that comes from a win.

A poor understanding of good or bad luck can derail the decision making of bankers, judges, and athletes. Being aware of probability will prevent you from reading too much into random events, or 'spotting' trends when there are none.

To avoid the trap of overestimating our own skill, we need to start thinking probabilistically. That means estimating the odds and adapting your decision-making accordingly.

2 Reactions

2 Comments

It's time to

READ

LIKE

A PRO!

Jump-start your

reading habits

, gather your

knowledge

,

remember what you read

and stay ahead of the crowd!

Takes just 5 minutes a day.


TRY THE DEEPSTASH APP

+2M Installs

4.7 App Score