Incomplete information and over-estimation - Deepstash
How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

Learn more about problemsolving with this collection

Understanding the importance of decision-making

Identifying biases that affect decision-making

Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision

How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

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Incomplete information and over-estimation

Incomplete information and over-estimation

  • Much of what you need to know in life is hidden from you. You need to make decisions, but is still the victim of chance or uncertainty.
  • We tend to over-estimate the role of our own skills. The more people overestimate the importance of their own ability, the less flexible their decision making becomes.

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The value of accepting the unknown

A poor understanding of good or bad luck can derail the decision making of bankers, judges, and athletes. Being aware of probability will prevent you from reading too much into random events, or 'spotting' trends when there are none.

In the current pandemic, where gove...

301

963 reads

Thinking probabilistically to avoid overestimating our abilities

To avoid the trap of overestimating our own skill, we need to start thinking probabilistically. That means estimating the odds and adapting your decision-making accordingly.

Even if the decision had a good outcome, we still need to objectively analyse the quality of the de...

306

1.15K reads

Learn to deal with tilting

Tilting means realizing that your emotions are not separate from the logic of your decision making - for example, the despair that comes from bad luck, or the overconfidence that comes from a win.

You can learn to cope better by regularly checking in with yourself...

342

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Luck and Incomplete Information

Luck and Incomplete Information

Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information. 

You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive....

Reason and emotions in decision making

Reason and emotions in decision making

Decision making is a complex process, that engages both reasoning and emotions. Even the most emotional person uses rational thought when deciding, and even the most rational person is affected by emotions when making decisions.

Still, we often tend to highlight the negati...

Estimate twice, decide once

When it comes to decisions, conduct whatever research you need to and make your estimate — and then go through the whole thing again, generating a second estimate. Take the average of the two estimates, and you’ll likely make a better decision than you would if you used either on its own. 

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