Instead of following the herd, investors should take their lead from the economic and business cycle. One of the few constants in investing is that all economies are cyclical – that is they expand and then contract. By focusing on the cycle, investors can determine the prospect for different assets and markets at the different stages, and importantly can avoid taking on excessive risk when the economy is showing signs of overheating just before a recession. Buying high and selling low is not a sensible investment strategy. Investing counter cyclically is.
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