Pros-and-cons lists are flawed - Deepstash
Leading in Product Management

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Pros-and-cons lists are flawed

There are a few biases they don't address:

  • Narrow framing: the tendency to view an option as your only option.
  • Confirmation bias: our tendency to gather the information that supports our preferred option.
  • Short-term emotion: our tendency to have our judgment clouded when emotions run high.
  • Overconfidence: our tendency to make a decision with too much optimism about how things will play out.

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Avoid making bad snap decisions

  • Successful decision-making relies on a balance between deliberate and intuitive thinking.
  • Opt for less information; stick to only what is essential. We may feel more confident when doing a lot of research, but this could lead to indecision and analysis paralysis.

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Deciding how to decide

Take into considerations these things:

  • Intuition is best used by experts, not novices.
  • Algorithms are better at decisions than the human brain.
  • Take your time (but not too much of it). 

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The brain when we make decisions

The 2 systems of the brain that wok during decision making:

  • System 1 is automatic and quick (like "something feeling off").
  • System 2 is deliberate and slow (like an algorithm).

At times, these systems are at odds with each other, but research shows it's always best ...

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Actively managing delay

  • Find out how much time you have to make the decision.
  • Wait as long as possible to choose. By giving yourself extra time, you have more opportunities to explore your options and gain valuable insight.

This works best if you're a novice, as an expert generally won’t need to...

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The WRAP technique for decision making

  • Widen your options: challenge yourself to consider alternatives. 
  • Reality-test your assumptions: run small experiments so you can know rather than predict which decision will work best for you.
  • Attain distance before deciding with the try the 10/10/10 approac...

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Making snap judgments

Snap judgments are most accurate if these things are present: experience and expertise. In other words, we must train our intuition.

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The 37%

Mathematics dictates that you should take 37% of the time or options you have to simply look and after that, you should commit to the first option that is better than everything you’ve seen so far.

That’s the point at which you have the highest chance—in a display of mathematical sym...

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colinii

A lot of problems would disappear if we talked to each other more than talking about each other.

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The Four Villains of Decision Making

The Four Villains of Decision Making

  • Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”
  • Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexi...

The Four Villains Of Decision Making

The Four Villains Of Decision Making

When we make bad decisions is usually because of these 4:

  • Narrow framing: the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms.
  • Confirmation bias: we are more likely to select the information that supports our preexistin...

Defeating Decision-Making Villains

  • Counter narrow framing by widening your options. Expand your set of choices.
  • Confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. Analyze and test your assumptions to overcome the bias.
  • Short-term emotion will tempt you to make the wrong choice. So distance yoursel...

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