The Four Villains Of Decision Making - Deepstash
How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

Learn more about leadershipandmanagement with this collection

Understanding the importance of decision-making

Identifying biases that affect decision-making

Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision

How To Become a Better Decision-Maker

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The Four Villains Of Decision Making

The Four Villains Of Decision Making

When we make bad decisions is usually because of these 4:

  • Narrow framing: the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms.
  • Confirmation bias: we are more likely to select the information that supports our preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.
  • Short-term emotion: when we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings churn.
  • Over-confidence: we think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

CHIP HEATH, DAN HEATH

The future is not a “point”—a single scenario that we must predict. It is a range. We should bookend the future, considering a range of outcomes from very bad to very good.

CHIP HEATH, DAN HEATH

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CHIP HEATH, DAN HEATH

Sometimes we think we’re gathering information when we’re actually fishing for support.

CHIP HEATH, DAN HEATH

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Wide your Options withe Multitracking

Wide your Options withe Multitracking

Focusing is great for analyzing alternatives but terrible for spotting them. When we focus we sacrifice peripheral vision.

Multitracking involves considering several options simultaneously. Multitracking has another advantage too, one that is more unexpected. It feels better.

...

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The WRAP Model for Better Decision Making

It describes the process that “wraps” around your usual way of making decisions, helping to protect you from some of the villains and biases related to decision making:

  • Widen your options.
  • Reality-test your assumptions.
  • A

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The Inside and Outside View

The Inside and Outside View

We sometimes make bad decisions because we are too much into the weeds in our head. There are 2 main views we hold:

  • The inside view - our evaluation of our specific situation.
  • The outside view - how things generally unfold in situa...

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The 10/10/10 Technique

The 10/10/10 Technique

To use 10/10/10, think about your decisions on three different time frames: How will I feel about it 10 minutes from now? How about 10 months from now? How about 10 years from now?

Conducting a 10/10/10 analysis doesn’t presuppose that the long-term perspective is the right...

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Consider the Opposite

Consider the Opposite

  • Studies found that the confirmation bias was stronger in emotion-laden domains such as religion or politics and also when people had a strong underlying motive to believe one way or the other.
  • Confirmation bias increases when people have previously invested a...

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Emotional decision failure

Emotional decision failure

Our decisions are often altered by two subtle short-term emotions:

  1. mere exposure to things we are used to: we like what’s familiar to us
  2. loss aversion: losses are more painful than gains are pleasant.

Loosing sucks and we subconscio...

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evan_yy

You say problem, I say challenge.

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The Four Villains of Decision Making

The Four Villains of Decision Making

  • Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”
  • Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexi...

Defeating Decision-Making Villains

  • Counter narrow framing by widening your options. Expand your set of choices.
  • Confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. Analyze and test your assumptions to overcome the bias.
  • Short-term emotion will tempt you to make the wrong choice. So distance yoursel...

Pros-and-cons lists are flawed

There are a few biases they don't address:

  • Narrow framing: the tendency to view an option as your only option.
  • Confirmation bias: our tendency to gather the information that supports our preferred option.
  • Short-term emotion: our tendency to have our...

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