Learn more about leadershipandmanagement with this collection
The impact of opportunity cost on personal and professional life
Evaluating the benefits and drawbacks of different choices
Understanding the concept of opportunity cost
Resulting
Resulting means judging the quality of a decision based on the quality of the result.
Our tendency is to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. The prevents us from accurately assessing the quality of our decisions and the role of luck in the outcomes we achieve.
141
1.45K reads
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How We Form Our Beliefs
This is how we think we form our beliefs:
- We hear something
- We think about it and then determine whether if it is true or false
- We form our belief
This is how we actually form our beliefs:
159
1.15K reads
Life is Poker, Not Chess
Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.
Life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision and still have it blow up in your face.
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1.51K reads
“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”
ANNIE DUKE
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1.95K reads
Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:
- It reminds us that the future is uncertain, giving a more realistic view of the world
- It prepares us for how to respond to different outcomes that might respond from our initial decisions
- Ant...
143
968 reads
How To Engage In Truth-Seeking
- Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.
- Lead with assent: Every...
145
1K reads
All Decisions Are Bets
A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.
They’re choices that you make in the face of an uncertain future.
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The Rashomon Effect
Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.
That’s because the way we interpret the world is not only a function of the objective experience but includes how we see and ch...
146
1.06K reads
Blind-Spot Bias
People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves.
- Being smart can actually make bias worse. Blind-spot bias is worse the smarter you are.
- Being smart and aware of your capacity for irrationality alone doesn’t help...
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1.14K reads
“Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”
ANNIE DUKE
145
1.73K reads
Thinking In Bets: The Buddy System
It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.
The characteristics of a good group to practice truth-seeking with:
- A focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness wi...
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“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
ANNIE DUKE
176
2.56K reads
“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m n...
ANNIE DUKE
149
1.32K reads
Related collections
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Separate decision quality from results
People have a natural tendency to conflate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. They're not the same thing.
You can make a smart, rational choice but still get poor results. That doesn't mean you should have made a different choice; it simply means that other f...
Learn from Your Decisions
Most people evaluate decision based on its outcomes, but they forget that there are outside factors, such as luck.
Quality of a decision is determined by the process and the reasoning used when the decision is made.
To evaluate your decision we need to make it visible by writing down ...
Thinking in Bets
Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.
What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accur...
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