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How We Form Our Beliefs
This is how we think we form our beliefs:
- We hear something
- We think about it and then determine whether if it is true or false
- We form our belief
This is how we actually form our beliefs:
- We hear something
- We believe it to be true
- Only sometime later, if we have the time or the inclination, we think about it and then determine whether it is true or false
Our pre-existing beliefs influence the way we see the world and the way we make decisions.
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896 reads
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Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is a productive skill to develop in decision making because:
- It reminds us that the future is uncertain, giving a more realistic view of the world
- It prepares us for how to respond to different outcomes that might respond from our initial decisions
- Ant...
106
765 reads
“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of ‘I’m n...
ANNIE DUKE
113
999 reads
The Rashomon Effect
Even when people experience the same event at the same time, if you ask them about it, you will often get two very different accounts about what happened.
That’s because the way we interpret the world is not only a function of the objective experience but includes how we see and ch...
108
823 reads
“Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”
ANNIE DUKE
109
1.33K reads
“In most of our decisions, we are not betting against another person. Rather, we are betting against all the future versions of ourselves that we are not choosing.”
ANNIE DUKE
136
2.07K reads
Life is Poker, Not Chess
Life is not like chess. Chess contains no hidden information and very little luck.
Life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision and still have it blow up in your face.
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1.18K reads
All Decisions Are Bets
A bet is a decision about an uncertain future. Thus, most of the decisions in your life – switching jobs, choosing a partner, selecting your field of study, not doing something – are bets.
They’re choices that you make in the face of an uncertain future.
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1.09K reads
Resulting
Resulting means judging the quality of a decision based on the quality of the result.
Our tendency is to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. The prevents us from accurately assessing the quality of our decisions and the role of luck in the ...
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1.14K reads
How To Engage In Truth-Seeking
- Express uncertainty: If we start by making clear our uncertainty, our audience is more likely to understand that the discussion held does not always have to be about right or wrong but about openness to different perspectives.
- Lead with assent: Every...
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790 reads
“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”
ANNIE DUKE
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1.58K reads
Thinking In Bets: The Buddy System
It is important to have a go-to group of people with a common interest in thinking in bets.
The characteristics of a good group to practice truth-seeking with:
- A focus on accuracy (over confirmation), which includes rewarding truth-seeking, objectivity, and open-mindedness wi...
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809 reads
Blind-Spot Bias
People are better at recognizing biased reasoning in others but are blind to bias in themselves.
- Being smart can actually make bias worse. Blind-spot bias is worse the smarter you are.
- Being smart and aware of your capacity for irrationality alone doesn’t help...
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877 reads
MORE LIKE THIS
Why Biases Can’t Be Fixed: Our Learning
We form mental models of learning, and see any new information based on our pre-existing belief patterns, assumptions, and education, forming a framework of information in our minds.
The new information could easily be rejected if it does not integrate into the existing framework.
Evaluate Your Core Beliefs
Over time we all develop core beliefs based on our experiences about ourselves and the world. Whether you’re aware of them or not, they influence your thoughts, behaviors and emotions.
Identify and evaluate your core beliefs to ensure yours aren’t inaccurate and unproductiv...
CBT Unveils Our Core Beliefs
For people to get better, they need to understand themselves well. They need to know why they are feeling a particular emotion or carrying out a certain behaviour.
CBT therapy allows individuals to discover core beliefs that influence them in the present.
Exploring the way our brains...
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