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Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

The Narrative Fallacy

People normally create a narrative based on their past and are sure that their predictions will match the way things will work out in the future. This is not usually the case, and it leads to wrong decisions.

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Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

Why You Shouldn't Be Fooled by Your Own Expertise

https://bothsidesofthetable.com/dont-be-fooled-by-your-own-expertise-41062da064f

bothsidesofthetable.com

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Key Ideas

Being Fooled By Data

Data can be used to prove anything.
People can be easily convinced by using data that, when analyzed closely, turns out to be dubious, without foundation or any real research.

Made Up Data

  • Data can be easily made up to serve ulterior motives, which are far from the truth.
  • Biased data finds its way out and is generally passed around as facts.
  • Some critical thinking and skepticism are required before any data is accepted for making decisions.

The Narrative Fallacy

People normally create a narrative based on their past and are sure that their predictions will match the way things will work out in the future. This is not usually the case, and it leads to wrong decisions.

Bias All-Around

  • Many experiments show that people can be biased and even irrational in making decisions. 
  • While we believe that logic, facts, data go in any decision, in reality, they can be emotional and biased in invisible ways.

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Data is Not Reality
  • We see organizations and the engineers who work in them steering towards big data, so it is commonly assumed that data means acumen and direction.
  • Any Data, by itself, does not bring clarity. Data is just information, not reality. It does not represent anything in the field of actuality.
  • Data is also, never complete. Getting more and more Data does not equate to getting more clarity.
Incomplete Data is Misleading

Our brains like to fill up incomplete information based on our prejudice and confirmation bias.

As all data is inherently incomplete, we use our minds to fill the missing information, based on the existing data we have, and that can go obverse.

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Why decision-making blunders are made

Each day, we automatically make thousands of choices, from what time to wake up to what to eat.

The problem with this automatic processing is that there are instances when we jump to concl...

6 of the largest decision-making blunders
  1. Sunk-cost fallacy. Present yourself with the new options at hand -- without considering the sunk cost.

  2. Narrow framing. When we're in situations that will repeat themselves over time, we should take a step back and play a game of averages.

  3. Emotionally driven decisions. Hold off on making important decisions when you are in a bad mood.

  4.  Confirmation bias. Always look for conflicting evidence and then make judgments based on more well-rounded information.

  5. Ego depletion. When we're drained, physically or mentally, we're less likely to think critically.

  6. The halo effect says that once we like somebody, we're more likely to look for his or her positive characteristics and avoid the negative ones. Realize your biases toward certain people and do what you can to eliminate them.

Biases...
Biases...

... specifically cognitive biases, are your unchecked tendencies to make decisions or take actions in an irrational way. 

Instead of making decisions based on facts and data, you ...

Biases = shortcuts for processing information

The brain creates shortcuts in order to make fast decisions when it hits information or inspiration overload

These shortcuts form unconscious biases so it’s easier for your brain to categorize information and make quick judgments over and over again.

Self-serving Bias
It causes you to claim your successes and ignore your failures. 

This means that when something good happens, you take the credit, but when something bad happens, you blame it on external factors.

Self-serving bias may manifest at work when you receive critical feedback. Instead of keeping an open mind, you may put up a defense when your manager or team member is sharing feedback or constructive criticism.

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