A weak argument needs two ingredients.

• Inductive reasoning: The argument should move from specific observations to broad generalizations.
• Uncertain premise: The specific observations used to build the argument should either have a low probability or be based on personal opinions.

Even if the argument sounds logical, the conclusion is not certain nor with high probability. For example, Charlie is a woman. Some women like poetry. Therefore, Charlie likes poetry.

Three critical thinking tools can help you quickly spot a weak argument.

1. Look for words such as surely, obviously, evidently, etc. These words mark the edge of what the author is sure about.
2. Compare the conclusion of the argument to a coin toss...