Two likely outcomes
- Surprise will sear the events of the last month into our heads permanently. The amount of surprise felt in the previous month means this is a life-defining event that will reshape the world. It will end up similar to the Great Depression or World War II.
- Surprise will increase the demand for forecasts. The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising. But a natural response is to cling to any remaining impressions of certainty. The desire to know what will happen next feels urgent.
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