Probabilistic thinking
In the absence of enough testing, we need to use probabilistic thinking to make decisions on what actions to take. Reasonable probability will impact your approach to physical distancing if you estimate the likelihood of transmission as being three people out of ten instead of one person out of one thousand.
When you have to make decisions with incomplete information, use inversion: Look at the problem backward. Ask yourself what you could do to make things worse, then avoid doing those things.
180
504 reads
CURATED FROM
IDEAS CURATED BY
The idea is part of this collection:
Learn more about personaldevelopment with this collection
The importance of perseverance
How to embrace failure as a learning opportunity
The power of innovation and creativity
Related collections
Similar ideas to Probabilistic thinking
Importance of using probabilistic thinking
Data can be imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain. Most of the time, there is more than one explanation for why things happened the way they did; by examining those alternative explanations using probability, you can gain a better understanding of causality and what is really going on.
Decision fatigue
As you make more decisions (especially difficult ones), and as you consider more options, you start to get mentally tired making your subsequent decisions worse and more difficult.
An excess of options will also increase your likelihood to avoid making a decision entirely.
Understanding probability
Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.
Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive.
Read & Learn
20x Faster
without
deepstash
with
deepstash
with
deepstash
Personalized microlearning
—
100+ Learning Journeys
—
Access to 200,000+ ideas
—
Access to the mobile app
—
Unlimited idea saving
—
—
Unlimited history
—
—
Unlimited listening to ideas
—
—
Downloading & offline access
—
—
Supercharge your mind with one idea per day
Enter your email and spend 1 minute every day to learn something new.
I agree to receive email updates