Learn more about personaldevelopment with this collection
The importance of perseverance
How to embrace failure as a learning opportunity
The power of innovation and creativity
Discover 128 similar ideas in
It takes just
17 mins to read
Probabilistic thinking
In the absence of enough testing, we need to use probabilistic thinking to make decisions on what actions to take. Reasonable probability will impact your approach to physical distancing if you estimate the likelihood of transmission as being three people out of ten instead of one person out of one thousand.
When you have to make decisions with incomplete information, use inversion: Look at the problem backward. Ask yourself what you could do to make things worse, then avoid doing those things.
180
501 reads
MORE IDEAS ON THIS
How to move forward
- Cooperation is a powerful way to move forward both as individuals and societies. All of us have given up some independence for access to resources provided by others.
- We can mitigate some negative effects by leveraging our community networks to create cooperative interactions that ...
147
338 reads
Compounding
Compounding is exponential growth. We tend to see the immediate linear relationships in the situation, e.g., how one test diagnoses one person.
The compounding effect of that relationship means that increased testing can lead to an exponential decrease in disease tran...
142
640 reads
Understanding the world through mental models
A few months ago, the world seemed reliable, but now it is changing so fast and has so many unknown dimensions, it can be hard to try and keep up.
Mental models can help us understand the world better, especially during times of confusion. A mental model is simply a representation ...
158
727 reads
The dynamics of a social response
As we watch the pandemic and its consequences unfold, we see that leadership and authority are not the same things.
Disasters expose the cracks in our leadership. We also see people that display strong leadership without needing any authority.
140
361 reads
Models for society
Using mental models will help in understanding the dynamics of the large-scale social response.
We are currently seeing first-order negatives (closing businesses), and 2nd- and 3rd-order positives (reduced transmission, less stress on the healthcare system.)
We need to enco...
141
359 reads
Ecosystems
One quality of an ecosystem is its resilience - the speed at which an ecosystem recovers after a disturbance.
- One factor that interferes with our collective resilience is the thin buffer of our economy. The closing of shops and business has exposed the fragile supply...
139
268 reads
CURATED FROM
CURATED BY
Related collections
More like this
Importance of using probabilistic thinking
Data can be imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain. Most of the time, there is more than one explanation for why things happened the way they did; by examining those alternative explanations using probability, you can gain a better understanding of causality and what is really going on.
Decision fatigue
As you make more decisions (especially difficult ones), and as you consider more options, you start to get mentally tired making your subsequent decisions worse and more difficult.
An excess of options will also increase your likelihood to avoid making a decision entirely.
Understanding probability
Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.
Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues because aspects of probability go against what we think is intuitive.
Read & Learn
20x Faster
without
deepstash
with
deepstash
with
deepstash
Access to 200,000+ ideas
—
Access to the mobile app
—
Unlimited idea saving & library
—
—
Unlimited history
—
—
Unlimited listening to ideas
—
—
Downloading & offline access
—
—
Personalized recommendations
—
—
Supercharge your mind with one idea per day
Enter your email and spend 1 minute every day to learn something new.
I agree to receive email updates