Pick The Right Table

To avoid the trap of overestimating our own skill, we need to start thinking probabilistically. That means estimating the odds and adapting your decision-making accordingly.

Even if the decision had a good outcome, we still need to objectively analyse the quality of the decision-making underneath.

Tilting means realizing that your emotions are not separate from the logic of your decision making - for example, the despair that comes from bad luck, or the overconfidence that comes from a win.

You can learn to cope better by regularly checking in with yourself to see what you are feeling and how you react. Once you have identified those feelings, then try to analyse how they're influencing your judgment.

Maria Konnikova, in her soon to be published book The Biggest Bluff, tells us that Poker is a real game, closer to life as opposed to the modern games which try to ‘game’ our brains’ and exploit its weaknesses.

Poker pushes us out of our comfort zones and illusions and puts us where life is, unpredictable, and always with fifty-fifty odds.

Why don't smart decisions always lead to good results? Because we don't have complete control over our lives — and we don't have all of the information. 

You can opt not to drink on New Year's Eve, for instance, but still get blindsided by somebody who did to drink and drive. You made a quality decision, but happenstance hit you upside the head anyhow.

Becoming comfortable with uncertainty and not knowing is a vital step to becoming a better decision-maker.

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge.

They act this way  because they assume others will make better decisions for them.

They underestimate the power of this effective strategy and end up relying on the thinking power of others to survive.

The best decision is the best one you can make with the information available at the time.

Simply need to make a decision with the faulty information at hand and move forward. Waiting longer is just delaying the inevitable, so you must decide even in the face of uncertainty.

1. Include the right people: anyone who can assist you with a career move
2. Know what your career network can do for you
3. Keep in touch - work your network: People are more willing to help when they know who you are
4. Give to get - what can you do for your career network
5. Keep track of your network: 

   make sure you know who is who, where they work, and how to get in touch.

6. Network online
7. Attend networking events.

Smiling is an important social cue, and that other people will respond to smiles on both a conscious and subliminal level.

• Language. “Please,” “Thank You,” and “You’re Welcome,” demonstrate to others that you value their effort, thought, and/or generosity.
• Names. Always address others in business by their title (Mr., Mrs., or Ms.) and their last name, unless they request you use a given name or nickname.
• Attire and Dress. The way a person dresses can demonstrate their respect for whoever they are meeting.
• Eye Contact. Most people believe that those who do not make eye contact are lying or avoiding something, or that they lack the confidence to interact effectively with other people.
• Speaking. A clear, well-modulated speaking voice is an important social tool, and contributes to the ease of communication and a good first impression.
• Handshake. While the handshake should be firm, too much pressure shows a desire to dominate and can be a negative signal.

Becoming a great tennis player is similar to being an excellent professional, you're constantly analyzing your weaknesses and strengths, and adjusting your game.

You can sabotage yourself by getting frustrated or being defeatist. Learning how to precisely manage yourself, and to stay calm and to dig deep in high pressure, high stakes situations can turn the tide of a match and a career.

Great tennis players are unfazed by failure in the moment, they wait until the match is over to let emotions set in. 

Getting accustomed to failure and learning how to handle it well is what success is built upon.

Serena Williams started playing tennis early on. Back in 2011, she had a major injury that caused her to plummet from being number 1 to 172. In 2013 she gained her rank back.

She decided to persist regardless of her injuries and losses.

In 2015 Serena Williams already had 21 Grand Slam titles. She was only 1 title away from scoring 22nd one, which was only done by Steffi Graf. She made it happen by winning Wimbledon 2016. 

Never give up. If someone else is winning, you can do it too. 

• We’re not as rational as we think. 
• We’re not prepared. We don’t understand the invariant ideas — the mental models — of how the world really works. 
• We don’t gather the information we need. We make decisions based on our “guts” in complex domains that require serious work to gather all the needed data. 

We live in a society that demands specialization. Being the best means being an expert in something.  A byproduct of this niche focus is that it narrows the ways we think we can apply our knowledge without being called a fraud.

We should apply all the knowledge at our disposal to the problems and challenges we face every day.