MORE IDEAS FROM Permanent Assumptions · Collaborative Fund
People generally want to solve problems than to create harm, but those who want to harm get a lot more attention.
While people can be taken advantage of, it can’t be done for an infinite period of time.
Every ten years or so, there has to be some economic, political, military or social breakdown, according to historical data.
In this world of uncertainties, nothing but death and taxes are sureshot in our lives.
There are however some assumptions that withstand the test of time. These assumptions take into account basic human psychology and historical data.
History is studied wrongly, while we focus on the unprecedented events (The Blips) and use that knowledge as a map of the future.
Instead of studying war and invasions, history needs to be studied upside down, with an emphasis on peace and prosperity.
Our predictions usually seem to fall towards extremes, either too optimistic or too pessimistic. We underestimate how bad things can be in the short term, and how much better they can eventually turn out to be in the longer run. This leads to bad decisions, laughably wrong forecasts and predictions and a lot of confusion.
A reasonably optimistic person is a little cautious, a little cynical, and expects surprises, setbacks, bewilderment and disappointment.
Life is a little easier if you expect a certain chunk of it to go wrong no matter how hard you try.
Smart people screw up. Good people have bad days. Nice people lose their temper.
Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.
Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to win. This didn’t mean he was wrong when Clinton lost, but most people believed he was.
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