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Preston
@preston_k29
The optimistic bias toward the future
There’s an extreme positivity bias toward the future: we think that future events are more important to our identity than the past events.
But we have to temper our expectations and keep in mind that no matter the degree in which we can dream up detailed scenes of things yet to come, these imagined futures are just our projections of our pasts. There most likely will be more suprises and even more disappointments than we have the willingness to predict.
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Daniel S.
@danss667
Can you learn to navigate uncertainty?
The Self-Perception of Experts
New research on the accuracy of future predictions by people has some interesting findings:
- Experts, largely considered an authority, fared poorly than the novices, due to their over...
Facing Change: Millennials Vs Boomers
Past experience, which many experts think helps them to better understand the world, surprisingly does not improve the ability to predict the future. The research data showed accuracy levels of the younger generation (25 to 35 years of age) being the highest.
Old people are slower to comprehend change, faster to believe and share fake news and less likely to be objective.
Humility
Working with an open mind, ready to dive into unfamiliar territory and learning new things, makes the entire exercise stress-free and rewarding experience. This state of mind, along with basic humility makes for better performance. One’s arrogance, ego and past can negatively affect the prediction quality.
A humble attitude also makes people listen to others opinions and share their own unique insights, helping collaboration and constructive teamwork.
BeeAyKay
@beeaykay
What we get wrong about time
The perception of time
Although some physicists would argue against the existence of time, we all do have a perception of time that reflects the reality of our lives on Earth.
False pasts
Most of us forget more than we remember. We change memories to make sense of what has happened in our lives. When we then recall a memory, we reconstruct the events in our minds and even shape them to fit in with any new information.
Understand the future
Many of us think of our past as a kind of a video library where we can look at records of our lives. If memories were fixed like videotapes, you would find it difficult to imagine a new situation.
It is our past memories that help us imagine a future, and to preview future events. This skill of using the past to predict the future helps us try out different hypothetical scenarios before we commit.
Cole Y.
@coly298
Why predicting our future feelings is so difficult
Mistakes in predicting our future feelings
We are not very good at guessing how we'll feel in the future. In predicting how we will feel in the future, we commonly use the past experience as a guide.
But our br...
Overestimating our future emotions
We overestimate the strength of our emotions in the future.
Studies show that people overestimated their happiness at winning and their disappointment at losing because they forgot all the other things that would happen in a day that would influence their mood.
Feelings are not long-lasting
A lottery winner, for instance, won't spend every day celebrating their win. Nor will someone with a disabling accident spend all their time in shock.
When imagining either situation, we like to think that the feelings will be long-lasting. We forget that we will adapt and that the feeling will eventually wear off.
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