The causation fallacies, known as oversimplification and exaggeration, occurs when a series of real causes for an event is either reduced or overstated to the extent that it distorts the truth. Multiple causes are reduced to just one or a few (oversimplification), or a few causes are multiplied into many (exaggeration).
For the sake of brevity, well-intentioned writers and speakers can fall into the trap of oversimplification. They may leave out too many details and omit critical information that needs to be included.
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Human hand preference is predictably a biological and genetic (hereditary) phenomenon, but we see that 85 percent of people are right-handed.
Researchers have identified the specific gene (...
Just like the weather, nature made sure that there are enough influencing factors that cause changes in hand-preference, like external, societal and cultural pressures, to result in various possible genetic combinations and chance influences.
This makes the entire process of hand preference unpredictable by design.
Premise 1: I can’t explain or imagine how proposition X can be true.
Premise 2: if a certain proposition is true, then I must be able to explain or imagine how that can be.
... and to bring this up as part of an argument. The issue with doing so occurs when this incredulity isn’t justified or supported by concrete information, and when this lack of belief is used in order to assume that a preferred personal explanation must be the right one, despite the lack of proof.
At the same time, it’s also important to remember that it’s possible that the person using the argument from incredulity is right, despite the fact that their reasoning is flawed.
The ability to create stories helps people to cooperate and move forward. Stories have multiple advantages: They allow us to discern complex situations, remember ideas, communi...
Listening to captivating stories can lead to biased evaluations and irreversible mistakes in business.
When it comes to dealing with critical problems, it is useful to become a story sceptic.
A narrative created after a specific result often downplays alternative scenarios that could have happened, making success and failure seem more predictable than they are.
Outcomes that seem obvious in hindsight are often unknown at the time of the decision, such as the modern PC, Google, or Harry Potter, that expert investors initially rejected. Often, not even the owners can accurately predict their own potential.
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