The tools of probing the future (strategic forecasting) include microscopic as well as macroscopic components.
Geopolitical forecasting is the study of alternate futures, taking signals from the noise of today’s stories, developments and decisions.
MORE IDEAS FROM Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting
It has two parts, with the first five steps, concentrating on which particular scenarios to work on, and the rest three steps towards the story, implications and indicators.
While providing a set of scenarios, four is a good number to showcase a rich set of plausible futures.
A strategy is always developed with a set of scenarios studied and selected. It requires common sense as well as experience.
Example: A strategy can be an aeroplane, and the scenarios can be the conditions under which it can fly, or which it can crash.
It aims to define your critical uncertainties and develop plausible scenarios in order to discuss the impacts and the responses to give for each one of them. If you are aware of what could happen, you are more likely to deal with what will happen.
It involves identifying a specific set of uncertainties, different “realities” of what might happen in the future of your business.
Managers who can expand their imaginations to see a wider range of possible futures will be much better positioned to take advantage of the unexpected opportunities that appear.
By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios that will help to compensate for decision-making errors from overconfidence and tunnel vision. That’s what scenario planning does.
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