Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting
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The tools of probing the future (strategic forecasting) include microscopic as well as macroscopic components.
Geopolitical forecasting is the study of alternate futures, taking signals from the noise of today’s stories, developments and decisions.
While providing a set of scenarios, four is a good number to showcase a rich set of plausible futures.
It has two parts, with the first five steps, concentrating on which particular scenarios to work on, and the rest three steps towards the story, implications and indicators.
A strategy is always developed with a set of scenarios studied and selected. It requires common sense as well as experience.
Example: A strategy can be an aeroplane, and the scenarios can be the conditions under which it can fly, or which it can crash.
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