The first two are easy to understand. It’s the third that’s hardest to learn, and can often only be learned through experience.
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The tail-end consequences of an action or event (those with low-probability, high-impact) are all that matter.
In investing, the average consequences of risk make up most of the daily news headlines. But the tail-end consequences of risk (for example, pandemics and depressions) are what make the pages of history books.
What do you do when you feel stressed or worried? Do you vent to anyone who will listen? Or do you calmly jot down your thoughts in a journal? For many people, the answer is probably the former. For some, venting may lead to a cathartic release of emotions.
However, using a journal to jot down your worries can be an effective tool to help you lean into uncomfortable emotions. It can also help you dissect what you’re feeling and provide you with a path forward.
Answering with yes to these questions is the first step to self-improvement:
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