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Three different sides of risk
- The odds you will get hit.
- The average consequences of getting hit.
- The tail-end consequences of getting hit.
The first two are easy to understand. It’s the third that’s hardest to learn, and can often only be learned through experience.
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The tail-end consequences
The tail-end consequences of an action or event (those with low-probability, high-impact) are all that matter.
In investing, the average consequences of risk make up most of the daily news headlines. But the tail-end consequences of risk (for example, pandemics and depressions) are what make the pages of history books.
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