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The first two are easy to understand. It’s the third that’s hardest to learn, and can often only be learned through experience.
The tail-end consequences of an action or event (those with low-probability, high-impact) are all that matter.
In investing, the average consequences of risk make up most of the daily news headlines. But the tail-end consequences of risk (for example, pandemics and depressions) are what make the pages of history books.
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