Analysis doesn't always lead to good decisions

According to the theory of the spiral of silence, our desire to fit in with others means we will speak up if we think our opinion will be popular, or avoid expressing an opinion if it is unpopular.

The feedback loop means each time someone voices a popular opinion, the positive feedback from the group reinforces the feeling that it is safe to do so. Conversely, receiving a negative response for a divergent opinion will strengthen the view that they should avoid expressing it.

1. The result of the spiral of silence is that few will publicly voice a minority opinion and will instead will nurse it in private.
2. The possibility of conflict makes us less likely to voice any opinion. If we want to know what people think, we need to remove the possibility of negative consequences.
3. When we see a sudden change in mainstream opinions, it can be because of a shift in what is acceptable to express, not what people really think.
4. Highly vocal people of a minority opinion can make their views seem far more prevalent and acceptable than they really are.

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

• Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more likely to get into another in the future.
• Most of our plans don’t go as we’d like. We get delayed, we have to backtrack, we have to make unexpected changes. Sometimes we think we can compensate for a delay in one part of a plan by moving faster later on. But the parts of a plan are not independent. A delay in one area makes delays elsewhere more likely as problems compound and accumulate.

In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains: “A different kind of mistake occurs when events that are independent are not treated as such . . . If you flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times and get 1,000,000 heads in a row, the probability of getting heads on the next flip is still 1/2. The very definition of statistical independence between two events is that the outcome of one has no effect on the outcome of another.”

Change will never be right unless it aligns with what you want to get out of life.

Do you know where you want to go? There's no point just moving at speed without knowing where you want to go. When you articulate your desired direction, you give yourself a clear purpose in your career.

Once you know where you want to be, work backwards to where you are now. Carefully consider all the steps in-between in reverse order.

Once you identify your requirements, you can use that list to evaluate opportunities.