Process over analysis in decision making - Deepstash

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What Matters More in Decisions: Analysis or Process?

Process over analysis in decision making

Analysis alone does not yield good decisions as the people who put it together have a subconscious bias and interest in a particular outcome.

Instead, a disciplined decision process involves guarding against decision-making biases by exploring and discussing major uncertainties or discussing contradictory viewpoints.

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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

The spiral of silence
The spiral of silence

The spiral of silence is a human communication theory developed by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in the 1960s.

The theory explains how societies form shared opinions an how we make deci...

How the spiral of silence works

According to the theory of the spiral of silence, our desire to fit in with others means we will speak up if we think our opinion will be popular, or avoid expressing an opinion if it is unpopular.

The feedback loop means each time someone voices a popular opinion, the positive feedback from the group reinforces the feeling that it is safe to do so. Conversely, receiving a negative response for a divergent opinion will strengthen the view that they should avoid expressing it.

The implications of the spiral of silence
  1. The result of the spiral of silence is that few will publicly voice a minority opinion and will instead will nurse it in private.
  2. The possibility of conflict makes us less likely to voice any opinion. If we want to know what people think, we need to remove the possibility of negative consequences.
  3. When we see a sudden change in mainstream opinions, it can be because of a shift in what is acceptable to express, not what people really think.
  4. Highly vocal people of a minority opinion can make their views seem far more prevalent and acceptable than they really are.
Understanding probability
Understanding probability

Understanding probability will help you get a more correct picture of the world and help you make better decisions.

Most of us fall prey to the same handful of issues beca...

Assuming events are independent when they are not

When two event are interconnected, the former happening increases or decreases the probability of the latter happening.

  • Your car insurance gets more expensive after an accident because car accidents are not independent events. A person who gets in one is more likely to get into another in the future.
  • Most of our plans don’t go as we’d like. We get delayed, we have to backtrack, we have to make unexpected changes. Sometimes we think we can compensate for a delay in one part of a plan by moving faster later on. But the parts of a plan are not independent. A delay in one area makes delays elsewhere more likely as problems compound and accumulate.
Not understanding when events are independent

In Naked Statistics, Charles Wheelan explains: “A different kind of mistake occurs when events that are independent are not treated as such . . . If you flip a fair coin 1,000,000 times and get 1,000,000 heads in a row, the probability of getting heads on the next flip is still 1/2. The very definition of statistical independence between two events is that the outcome of one has no effect on the outcome of another.

Career changes are daunting
Career changes are daunting

Career changes are some of the biggest shifts we will make. They often involve some retraining and will impact your personal life.

When you manage the situation through the lens of a few me...

Velocity: Speed and direction

Change will never be right unless it aligns with what you want to get out of life.

Do you know where you want to go? There's no point just moving at speed without knowing where you want to go. When you articulate your desired direction, you give yourself a clear purpose in your career.

Inversion: Working backwards

Once you know where you want to be, work backwards to where you are now. Carefully consider all the steps in-between in reverse order.

Once you identify your requirements, you can use that list to evaluate opportunities.