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There are two thinking systems, each with distinct characteristics.
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People are not accustomed to thinking hard. They are often satisfied with a plausible answer that comes quickly to mind.
Decision making can be divided into three systems: Emotional, rational, and perceptual systems.
The perception of and reaction to risk is often dismissed as emotional. The first thing that happens is you're afraid, and from that fear, you feel risk. So the view of risk is becoming less cognitive while emotion becomes dominant.
Decision analysis is based on the idea that decision making is a choice between gambles. Managers think that they are fighting risk in a controlled way. The idea that you are gambling is an admission that you have lost control. It is detestable to decision managers, and the reason they reject dec...
Both individuals and groups need mechanisms to review how their decisions are made.
In statistical thinking, professional statisticians informally think the degree of the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.
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