The law of small numbers - Deepstash

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Daniel Kahneman: The Thought Leader Interview

The law of small numbers

In statistical thinking, professional statisticians informally think the degree of the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.

In other words, even people who should know better make these mistakes. When they're not computing seriously in System 2 mode (reasoning), they rely on their intuitions for simple problems.

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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

"May the fourth be with you"
"May the fourth be with you"

"May the fourth be with you" plays on the phrase in Star Wars "may the Force be with you."

"May the fourth be with you" was popularized by Margaret Thatche...

Becoming a slogan

The pun on "May the Force be with you" has been used a number of times over the years.

Once In 2008, a Facebook group celebrated "Luke Skywalker Day" and adopted the May the Fourth slogan. Since then, May 4 has been a regular fandom celebration. In 2013, Disney also joined in the celebration.

War games
War games

War games are a great way to learn about history and warfare.

The Prussians used war games in the 19th c. to prepare for conflicts. So did the WATU (the UK Western Approach...

War games to hone intuitive decision making

War games are a great tool to sharpen intuitive decision making. Considering that they provide insight, learning, professional development, and entertainment, they can be applied in a very specialized way.

The civilian market offers a variety of computer and board war games that serve this purpose and is often better at simulating war than those designed by the military.

Computer vs. Tabletop games

Computer-based and tabletop-based games fulfil a different purpose and can be complementary.

  • Computer war games are great at simulating the command environment but weak in its tendency for micromanagement and too much detail.
  • Tabletop war games are useful for studying situations in-depth and top-down. It emphasizes the human and technological aspect. The rules provide the gamer insights into war and competition from the beginning.
Rigid Thoughts: Feeling Stuck In Negative Emotions
Rigid Thoughts: Feeling Stuck In Negative Emotions

We get stuck in our emotions due to our spiralling mind, our fixation with old ideas and behaviours, our need to be always right, perfectionism and thinking in absolute terms.

...
Things We Do To Cope-Up With Negative Feelings

These are the three usual suspects, stuff we do to cope-up with our emotions:

  1. Bottling up our emotions, leading to stress.
  2. Brooding over our emotions, which usually leads to self-blame.
  3. Forcing ourselves to see everything as positive, which can be delusional in many cases.
Get Unstuck: Cultivating Emotional Agility
  1. Acknowledge and accept the various bad ways used to cope-up with negative emotions.
  2. Identify the feelings and be comfortable with the uncomfortable emotions like frustration and hopelessness.
  3. Start a journal and write down your deepest feelings and insecurities.
  4. Look for clues in these negative thoughts, trying to find the underlying cause or pattern.
  5. Identify the basic inconsistencies and try to make a course correction in the right direction.