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The perception of risk
The perception of and reaction to risk is often dismissed as emotional. The first thing that happens is you're afraid, and from that fear, you feel risk. So the view of risk is becoming less cognitive while emotion becomes dominant.
Emotion is about what might happen, not so much the probability. The more emotional the event is, the less sensible people are.
128
501 reads
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Group decisions are not risk-free
- Groups are better equipped than individuals to recognize an answer as correct. But, when the whole group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals.
- Polarization can occur in groups. One major bias in risky decision making is optimism, while doubts are sup...
120
363 reads
The two-system theory
There are two thinking systems, each with distinct characteristics.
- System 1, or intuition. We think in this way most of the time. We respond to the world in ways that we're not conscious of and don't control. System 1 operations are fast, effortless...
134
666 reads
The nature of the human judgment
People are not accustomed to thinking hard. They are often satisfied with a plausible answer that comes quickly to mind.
The prospect theory - the empirical exploration of risk assessment, loss aversion, and reference dependence, explains why people consistently behave in ...
146
1.24K reads
Mechanisms needed for individuals and groups
Both individuals and groups need mechanisms to review how their decisions are made.
- Many businesses are averse to appointing someone to keep statistics on the decisions made and evaluate the biases, errors, the wrong forecasts, and the misjudged factors to make the p...
117
311 reads
The law of small numbers
In statistical thinking, professional statisticians informally think the degree of the probability distribution in a small group will closely resemble the probability distribution in the overall population.
In other words, even people who should know better make these mistakes. When they'r...
118
622 reads
Decision analysis
Decision making can be divided into three systems: Emotional, rational, and perceptual systems.
The rational model is one where the beliefs and desires are supposed to be determined, but decision analysis of the last thirt...
123
475 reads
Why decision-makers don't like decision analysis
Decision analysis is based on the idea that decision making is a choice between gambles. Managers think that they are fighting risk in a controlled way. The idea that you are gambling is an admission that you have lost control. It is detestable to decision managers, and the reason they reject dec...
117
368 reads
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The perception of control
We learn fear through observation, personal experiences, and through the instruction of spoken or written notes. The perception of control is vital to how we experience and respond to fear.
When you look to your friend at the haunted house, and she's quickly gone from ...
The start of a whole new life
You'll dislike the hard work at first because you'll tell yourself you dislike hard work. What you're feeling is not dislike. It's fear. Fear of failure. You're afraid to disappoint.
Clear your future of bad messages and dumb stories. You're not a sloth. You're ready to move forward. What h...
Fear Is A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy - Day 185
- The leader convinced that he might be betrayed acts first and betrays others first. Afraid that he's not well-liked he works hard that it has the opposite effect. Convinced of mismanagement, he micromanages and becomes the Source of mismanagement. The things we dread or fear, we blindly infl...
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