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Jumping to conclusions: the inference-observation confusion - Ness Labs

Jumping to conclusions

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We are all prone to jump to conclusions.

The psychological term for jumping to conclusions is "inference-observation confusion", meaning people make an inference but fail to label it as such, which results in faulty conclusions.

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Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

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Jumping to conclusions is a phenomenon where people reach a conclusion prematurely, on the basis of insufficient information. For example, a person jumping to conclusions might assume that someone they just met is angry at them, simply because that person wasn't smiling at them while they talked, even though there are many alternative explanations for that behavior.

Key Ideas

Jumping into Conclusions

Jumping to conclusions is a common phenomenon, where people prematurely decide and finalize something, without having sufficient information or choosing not to consider it.

Jumping into Conclusions: Examples

Inference-observation confusion: An assumption made that may or may not be correct. Example: Concluding that a guy is rich, based on the car he drives.
Fortune-Telling: Assumption of knowing exactly what will happen in the future.
Mind Reading: Assuming based on how to have read someone's mind and concluded something which may not be true.
Extreme Extrapolation: Finding a minor clue and making something major out of it.
Overgeneralization: Copy-pasting a piece of knowledge over something that you think is related, but is not.
Labeling: Stereotyping a set of people based on their likes and dislikes.

Why We Jump to Conclusions

The reason people jump to conclusions is the fact that they find it easy.

Fact-checking and 100 percent accuracy on everything they see or observe consume way too much time for a normal person.

Taking mental shortcuts is the path most people choose to jump to conclusions.

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Fortunetelling, mind reading and jumping to conclusions

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Jumping to conclusions is a very common form of negative thinking. You just jump to a NEGATIVE conclusion without any justifiable facts of the situation.

Key Ideas

Jumping Into Conclusions

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It is a form of cognitive distortion which generally gravitates towards the negative. This happens without any justifiable cause or reason and is not based on any fact.

It ...

Two Types Of Cognitive Distortion

Fortune Telling: When one believes that the negative outcome is already a confirmed fact. The baseless assumptions are a reality inside the mind of a fortune teller. In most cases, things that seem to be a big worry have nothing to do with reality.
Mind Reading: Instead of focusing on probable bad situations, a mind reader creates unverified negative assumptions about people. These can be about people not respecting you, or about not getting acceptance from someone.

Why People Visit Fortune Tellers

The basic psychology about visiting a fortune teller is that the mind is cognitively distorted and needs reassurance. When a fortune teller tells you that everything is going to be ok, the negative thoughts start to diminish.

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How you’re unconsciously undermining relationships while working remotely

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When working virtually, it can be easy to make assumptions or jump to conclusions that damage relationships with your colleagues or supervisors.

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Remote work and the lack of context around communication

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Virtual communication often lacks the nonverbal clues we notice with in-person conversations.

To compensate, we often make assumptions or jump to conclusions that can cause harm to our work...

Virtual communication: how to avoid misunderstandings

Instead of acting on your assumptions, go to the facts. Understanding the individual styles of employees can also give interactions more context and help avoid misunderstandings.

Prioristizers are logical, analytical, and data-oriented people who focus on goals and outcomes. They don't like to engage in chitchat.
Planners thrive with structure, planning, and talking about the details. They often communicate in bullet points and numbers.
Arrangers are supportive, relationship-driven team members who work best when they form connections.
Visualizers are big-picture thinkers who want minimal details. They will often email at the last minute, and apologize for short deadlines.

Virtual work: adjust your communication and expectations

To avoid unnecessary conflict, it is essential to understand the nuances of colleagues and how they work.

Accept that others may not work and communicate the same way you do. If you see someone looking to the side during a video conference, instead of thinking they are not paying attention, understand that they may really be taking notes. Another person may want to spend time on a connection before they engage with the content.