Jumping to conclusions: the inference-observation confusion - Ness Labs - Deepstash
Jumping to conclusions: the inference-observation confusion - Ness Labs

Jumping to conclusions: the inference-observation confusion - Ness Labs

Curated from: nesslabs.com

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Jumping to conclusions

Jumping to conclusions

We are all prone to jump to conclusions.

The psychological term for jumping to conclusions is "inference-observation confusion", meaning people make an inference but fail to label it as such, which results in faulty conclusions.

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Good intentions

Jumping to conclusions often comes from our desire to sound compassionate and invested in what someone is telling us.

We may comment by saying "wow", or "what a shame" when we really have no idea how the person wants us to feel. Instead of sounding supportive, we may come across as dismissive.

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Types of inference-observation confusion

  • Mind reading. By watching the behaviour and nonverbal communication, we assume we know how someone feels, even when there are other potential explanations.
  • Fortune telling. We predict an outcome without having enough evidence. For example, we don't even try to enter a competition because we don't think we will win. These kinds of expectations can prevent us from taking action.
  • Labelling. We overgeneralise by labelling all the members of a group with the characteristics seen in a few.

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Educated guesswork

It is impractical not to draw any conclusions. A middle ground between jumping to conclusions and not drawing any conclusion is to hold our thoughts in mind while leaving enough room to explore other alternatives.

Instead of mind reading by saying "I know exactly what your mean", we can ask, "Is that what you mean?" When we think there is no point in trying as it will probably fail, we can try anyway.

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