Bite‑sized knowledgeto upgrade
your career
to upgrade
Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.
The Concept Of Extraordinary Claims
- Instead of viewing claims as either ordinary or extraordinary, it’s better to view them as ranging between these two ends of the spectrum, based on how likely they are given everything that is known on the subject.
- It can be difficult to define the exact threshold on the ordinary-extraordinary spectrum that a certain claim needs to cross before it’s considered extraordinary, it’s generally preferable to focus on how extraordinary a claim is instead, and to expect a stand of proof that matches that degree of extraordinariness.
- A claim should generally not be viewed as extraordinary simply because it’s novel, but rather because it contradicts existing evidence.
1
STASHED IN:
61
published ideas from this article:
MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME ARTICLE
The Sagan standard is related to astronomer Carl Sagan, who stated that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” (a dictum abbreviated as ECREE).
This means that the more unlikely a certain claim is, given existing evidence on the matter, the greater the stan...
Based on the Sagan standard, if someone claims that they came across a unicorn during they commute, they would be expected to brig stronger evidence in order to verify that claim than if they claimed that they came across a horse.
This happens because there is significant evidenc...
There is no clear separation between what is ‘ordinary’ evidence and what is ‘extraordinary’ evidence; the answer is in most cases subjective, though it should nevertheless be based on sound reasoning.
However, it is possible to argue in favor or against the extraordinarin...
The more unlikely a claim is, the more supporting substantial the evidence that you should require before accepting it as true.
When presented with a certain claim, you should expect the strength of evidence that is used to support it to be proportional to how unlikely tha...
Overall, the concept of ECREE does not mean that claims that contradict the current scientific consensus should always be ignored, or that claims that support the consensus should be automatically accepted. Rather, ECREE simply suggests that the likelihood that a certain claim is true, b...
MORE LIKE THIS
- FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) is a collection of feelings and emotions that influence our thinking.
- It was coined by Gene Amdahl, who worked at IBM and later founded his own company.
- Business, media, politics and even some religions use FUD intentionally, as they under...
6
STASHED IN:
76
published 9 ideas
It is a rhetorical technique that involves overwhelming your opponent with numerous vague arguments, with no regard for accuracy, validity, or relevance of those arguments.
The Gish gallop is a misleading rhetorical technique, rather than a logical fallac...
1
STASHED IN:
104
... is a faulty assumption that becomes the basis of an argument and makes it logically unsound. For example, all birds can fly. Penguins can't fly. Therefore, penguins aren't birds. The premise that all birds can fly is false since some birds can't fly.
A...
15
STASHED IN:
246
published 5 ideas
❤️ Brainstash Inc.