The Sagan Standard: Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence - Effectiviology - Deepstash

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The Sagan Standard: Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence - Effectiviology

effectiviology.com

The Sagan Standard

The Sagan standard is related to astronomer Carl Sagan, who stated that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence” (a dictum abbreviated as ECREE).

This means that the more unlikely a certain claim is, given existing evidence on the matter, the greater the stan...

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Based on the Sagan standard, if someone claims that they came across a unicorn during they commute, they would be expected to brig stronger evidence in order to verify that claim than if they claimed that they came across a horse.

This happens because there is significant evidenc...

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  • Instead of viewing claims as either ordinary or extraordinary, it’s better to view them as ranging between these two ends of the spectrum, based on how likely they are given everything that is known on the subject.
  • It can be difficult to define the exact th...

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There is no clear separation between what is ‘ordinary’ evidence and what is ‘extraordinary’ evidence; the answer is in most cases subjective, though it should nevertheless be based on sound reasoning.

However, it is possible to argue in favor or against the extraordinarin...

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Overall, the concept of ECREE does not mean that claims that contradict the current scientific consensus should always be ignored, or that claims that support the consensus should be automatically accepted. Rather, ECREE simply suggests that the likelihood that a certain claim is true, b...

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The more unlikely a claim is, the more supporting substantial the evidence that you should require before accepting it as true.

When presented with a certain claim, you should expect the strength of evidence that is used to support it to be proportional to how unlikely tha...

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