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The Illusion of Explanatory Depth
We are overconfident about what we think because we're familiar with the material.
We think we know more than we actually do because it's available to us. And when knowledge is put to the test, our familiarity with things leads to an (unwarranted) overconfidence about how they work.
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How to Win an Argument
If you want to win an argument, simply ask the person trying to convince you of something to explain how it would work.
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“The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.”
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To Persuade or Convince
When people disagree with us we assume they are ignorant … that they lack information. So we try to convince them with information. It seldom works.
- Persuasion appeals to the emotions and to fear and to the imagination. Convincing requires a spreadshee...
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The Illusion of Explanatory Depth
When knowledge is put to the test, our familiarity with things leads to an (unwarranted) overconfidence about how they work.
Most of the time others won’t test their knowledge either. This is the beginning of how we start to show others or even ourselves that our view of the world might ...
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Ask for an explanation
If you want to win an argument, simply ask the person trying to convince you of something to explain how it would work.
Odds are they have not done the work required to hold an opinion. If they can explain why they are correct and how things would work, you’ll learn something. If th...
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The Illusion of Explanatory Depth
When knowledge is put to the test, our familiarity with things leads to an (unwarranted) overconfidence about how they work.
Most of the time others won’t test their knowledge either. This is the beginning of how we start to show others or even ourselves that our view of the world might ...
Illusion of explanatory depth
We think understand complex phenomena with far greater precision and depth than we rally do. We are are subject to an illusion.
Believing we know more than we actually do can lead us to prejudice without us even knowing.
Familiarity and recollection
- Familiarity is the sense that you’ve seen something before. That feeling of, “ah, I’ve seen this before,” is commonly confused with actually being able to recollect said information.
- Recollection is much more than familiarity. To recollect something, you nee...
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