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Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is a false belief that our judgement is better than it actually is when we look back and see the events. Reality appears more predictable after an event happens. This is also known as the ‘Knew-it-all-along effect’.

This bias makes people less accountable for their decisions, and overconfident in their ability to make those decisions, due to the various mental models that they have developed.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

Protection From Hindsight Bias

For protection from the hindsight bias, we can discipline ourselves to make explicit decisions based on actual, known facts, in a recorded process.

Having an explicit, written documentation can ensure that we and the external observers were objective in the decision, and ...

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Interpretation Vs Reality

Prior knowledge of an event’s outcome anchors the mind towards a certain kind of interpretation of how the event will unfold.

This makes the individual confirm the outcome to fit their existing expectations. If the outcome is entirely different from the expected result, t...

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Availability Bias

As often heard, the simplest explanations tend to be the most likely, and the more difficult it is for us to imagine an outcome, the less likely it is. Any new information then tends to be processed by the prior judgements and speculations, making our justifications solidify in our minds.

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The Hindsight Bias

A bias that many people including historians, experts and physicians encounter is the hindsight bias, which makes them think they knew how an event would turn out before it happened. It is the tendency for people to perceive past outcomes as having been more predictable ...

The many faces of the memory bias

  • Rosy retrospection bias. We often remember the past as having been better than it really was.
  • Consistency bias. We wrongly remember our past attitudes and behaviour as similar to our present attitudes and behaviour.
  • Mood-congruent ...

Bandwagon Bias

It occurs when you adopt a belief just because more people hold that belief. This bias can lead to groupthink, which is the tendency for group members to over-conform to a leader.

Many work meetings become unproductive due to bandwagon bias and groupthink because team members don’t f...

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