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The Hindsight Bias

A bias that many people including historians, experts and physicians encounter is the hindsight bias, which makes them think they knew how an event would turn out before it happened. It is the tendency for people to perceive past outcomes as having been more predictable than they actually were.

This phenomenon has been linked to distortion of memory, which unconsciously makes us understand the world based on our outlook.

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Hindsight Bias: Consequences

If the bias distortion is within limits, hindsight bias makes a normal person confident and self-assured and facilitates decision making.

Rational thinking is impaired with hindsight bias, as one is not inclined towards learning from experience, or having a growth mindset which involves vi...

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Alternative Hypotheses For Hindsight Bias

The hindsight bias is so entrenched and common that it is not possible to completely get rid of it, even if the individual is aware and has the intention of removing the bias.

Looking at alternative facts, checking the anomalies and your own assumptions can reduce the bias to some exte...

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The Factors Behind The Hindsight Bias

  1. Selective Activation And Reconstructive Anchoring (SARA): Only remembering the information partially and using the same as a memory anchor to reactivate the (altered) memory when new information arrives.
  2. Reconstruction After Feedback (RAFT):

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Sometimes the most important life lessons are the ones we end up learning the hard way.

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Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias

Hindsight bias is a false belief that our judgement is better than it actually is when we look back and see the events. Reality appears more predictable after an event happens. This is also known as the β€˜Knew-it-all-along effect’.

This bias makes people less accountable fo...

The many faces of the memory bias

  • Rosy retrospection bias. We often remember the past as having been better than it really was.
  • Consistency bias. We wrongly remember our past attitudes and behaviour as similar to our present attitudes and behaviour.
  • Mood-congruent ...

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