Risk and Uncertainty - Deepstash
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Risk and Uncertainty

Risk and Uncertainty

People often confuse risk with uncertainty. But the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" do not refer to the same thing.

  • Risk is precise and quantifiable.
  • Uncertainty is when the underlying system is not understood.

The more you understand a system, the more able you are to convert uncertainty into risk.

204

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

Uncertainty and Framing

The prospect theory shows that people are often willing to make riskier decisions to avoid losses than to make gains - even when the situation is identical but framed differently. For example, a 30% chance of death and a 70% chance o...

161

639 reads

Coping with Uncertainty

  • Risk can be calculated by figuring out the odds.
  • Uncertainties can't be computed. Even if you could do the math, uncertainties don't have any numbers to calculate.

Most people deal with uncertainty by only doing things others have don...

177

712 reads

Risk and Arrogance

Once you understand a system, you can change some risk into uncertainty. Sometimes you can do this completely, but other times you can limit your range of uncertainties to a calculable level.

More knowledge allows you more controlled risk. However, sometimes, peopl...

157

559 reads

Smart Risk

Uncertainty hides the risks of our decisions. This makes us tread very carefully. But, in reality, most of the decision terrain isn't nearly so dangerous. Things that look risky often aren't, and things that look routine and safe, often are.

The solution i...

174

661 reads

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ang_n

"An investment in knowledge always pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin

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Risk and Arrogance

Once you understand a system, you can change some risk into uncertainty. Sometimes you can do this completely, but other times you can limit your range of uncertainties to a calculable level.

More knowledge allows you more controlled risk. However, sometimes, peopl...

Risk and uncertainty

  • Risk is when the factors that determine success or failure are out of your control, but the odds of success are known.
  • Uncertainty is when the factors that determine success or failure are not out of your control but are simply unknown. It is play...

Uncertainty and Framing

The prospect theory shows that people are often willing to make riskier decisions to avoid losses than to make gains - even when the situation is identical but framed differently. For example, a 30% chance of death and a 70% chance o...

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