We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not. "Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell." How to elude the survivorship bias? <ul><li>Do the digging yourself. </li><li>Many successful individuals or teams share "success factors" with other winners and likewise, many failed individuals or teams share the same characteristics and traits as those who succeeds. </li><li>Guard against survivorship bias by visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers. </li></ul>

Survivorship Bias

We are genetically programmed with herd instinct -- to follow the crowd. However, it does not always mean that when the crowd does something, that action of choice is correct."If fifty million people sat something foolish, it is still foolish" - W. Somerset Maugham

Social Proof 

When you start seeing a pattern in something, always consider the possibility that the occurence is simply by chance.

Clustering Illusion

Swimmer's body illusion is whenever we confuse selection factors with results. Some people are born with selection factors that makes them eligible for the success that they have now achieved. For example a swimmer might not have a perfect body because he swims, but because he was genetically equipped with the appropriate physique. So before deciding to take on the plunge to emulate another person's actions or choices, hoping for the same end result, look in the mirror -- and be honest about what you see.

Swimmer's Body Illusion

We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices. The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this book will change the way you think and transform your decision making. From why you should not accept a free drink to why you should walk out of a movie you don't like, from why it's so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn't watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

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Personal Development

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Books

A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these “thinking errors” to make better decisions and have a better life Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously bad—that is, irrational—when it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as “cognitive errors.” Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger. The “behavioral turn” in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don’t.Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn’t accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don’t like it to why it’s so hard to predict the future to why shouldn’t watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Rolf Dobelli is a Swiss author and businessman. He began his writing career as a novelist in 2002, but he is best known internationally for his bestselling non-fiction The Art of Thinking Clearly (2011, English 2013), for which The Times has called him "the self-help guru the Germans love".

Clustering Illusion

Similar ideas to Clustering Illusion

Mapping Efficiency Frontiers

Randomness and Determined Choice

Preventing Reactions