Giovanna Renee Tan's Key Ideas from The Art of Thinking Clearly
by Rolf Dobelli

We tend to overestimate the chances of success because success stories are more likely to be reported, while failure stories do not.

"Behind every popular author you can find a hundred other writers whose books never sell."

How to elude the survivorship bias?

• Do the digging yourself.
• Many successful individuals or teams share "success factors" with other winners and likewise, many failed individuals or teams share the same characteristics and traits as those who succeeds.
• Guard against survivorship bias by visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers.

Swimmer's body illusion is whenever we confuse selection factors with results.

Some people are born with selection factors that makes them eligible for the success that they have now achieved. For example a swimmer might not have a perfect body because he swims, but because he was genetically equipped with the appropriate physique.

So before deciding to take on the plunge to emulate another person's actions or choices, hoping for the same end result, look in the mirror -- and be honest about what you see.