The Art of Clear Thinking

Making decision as a fighter pilot involves 3 steps known as the ACE Helix:

• Assess the problem
• Choose correct course of action
• Execute

It’s like a helix because each decision may require us to make second and even third order of decision spiraling down the line.

A fighter pilot needs to make decision with incomplete information and lives on the line.

Clear thinking often beats talent. It’s better to exercise judgment to avoid situations that would require superior technical skills.

In today’s complex and interconnected world, a decision can directly impact many others. This is further amplified by technology.

The difference between good and bad decision is enormous.

Our minds are biased toward linear thinking. However, many things in life are nonlinear.

Power Law governs systems where a change in one aspect can lead to a very large change in another, regardless of starting conditions.

There are 3 common types:

1. Exponential growth (population, virus infection, compound interest)
2. Diminishing returns (satisfaction, manpower, ad spend)
3. Long tail (income distribution, social media following, book sales)

A fighter pilot must be able to make decision quickly until it becomes instinctual.

There is hard limit on how many times they can fly and engage in real combat, so learning process is critical.

Some strategies:

• Concepts over facts. Understand cause and effect relationship and develop robust mental framework.
• Choose the best and most experienced pilot as the instructor. No option to turn down the position.
• Use combat simulation. Pilots are required to solve a mission like in real world.
• Take debrief seriously. Gain lessons learned from each simulation and real combat to refine our thinking.

Heuristics are rule-of-thumb strategies designed to shorter the time it takes to solve complex problem and decide next course of action. It’s a mental shortcut.

Some examples

• Line of sight. How an object align to certain position in the windshield.
• Good-idea cutoff line. During planning, everyone can give ideas, but after two thirds of planning session, no more new ideas allowed to avoid delay and confusion.

To maximize learning from debrief session, apply the following ideas:

• Put aside ranks. Everyone must be allowed to point out mistakes. Everyone is open to criticism.
• Own mistakes. Encourage everyone to first look inward for failure, starting from the mission commander and highest ranking pilots.
• Structure the session. Debrief session typically consists of (1) recollection of all mission data and study them personally, (2) reconstruct the mission using everyone’s data to get the god’s eye view, (3) choose debrief focus points, (4) analyze contributing factors, and (5) formulate new instructions.

A fighter pilot must be able to make quick decision during critical situation by evaluating options, calculate its rough probability and approximate the expected value of each decision. This is an ability called fast-forecasting.

Fast-forecasting allows us to create rough solutions that make sense. Precision is not the goal. The thought process is largely driven by logic and reason, cultivating our mental framework that we’ve accumulated in our life.

In modern days, war is planned based on the desired effects or outcomes rather than the available resources. Starting at the end goal and then working backward.

This type of planning is better than focusing on traditional medium for certain attack, we can select and combine the most appropriate tools to get the desired end state, whether by using tanks, helicopters, drones, or even cyber attack.

Creativity can help us connecting things in unexpected ways and it’s such critical resource that can give exponential advantage.

No plan survives first contact of the enemy. In real combat, there is always element of fear involved. Ability to manage stress and remain calm are critical to think clearly in any situation.

Beside training and experience, there are several techniques that can be used, such as breathing slowly, reframing our thinking, and visualizing the upcoming events.

Eisenhower made one of the best decision in history during World War 2. In large part, it was due to his ability to prioritize.

He introduced the famous Eisenhower matrix, a 2x2 matrix which can help us to prioritize our tasks based on urgency and importance.

We should spend most of our time to focus on important things before it becomes urgent. We must reduce anything that is not important.

Spare some mental capacity to make decision that matters.