After the Breton Woods agreement, all the world currencies were pegged to the dollar, which was in torn pegged on gold. But in 1974 the US dropped the gold backing and $ became free-floating. The US maintained their currency supremacy by making sure all the Middle East oil producers would only trade in $ & get the US military protection in return.In 2021 however, China is the major oil importer and that puts a lot of pressure on countries like Saudi Arabia. Russia, a major oil producer, started trading in euros and yuan. Once the oil monopoly evaporates the US dollar is toast.

The end game for the US dollar

The US has too much debt, and 0% interest rates. The situation looks similar with US in the 40s and 70s. In the 70s the US raised rates, in the 40s they let inflation eat all savings.Lyn Alden, a famous macro-economist, believes the current situation is more like the 40s. The US can not increase the rates, so most likely it will let inflation reign and get money from the rich, a form of financial repression.

Lyn Alden prediction for financial repression

“Forward Guidance” is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday. Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently. Timestamps: 00:00・Introduction 00:49・Lyn's macro outlook 04:00・Lyn's outlook on Bitcoin 05:24・Lyn's outlook on gold 07:20・The first U.S Bitcoin ETF 09:35・Lyn's thoughts on the energy crisis 15:15・Lyn's commodity outlook 18:35・The end game for the U.S Dollar 27:50・Net international investment position of the U.S 31:39・Dollar denominated debt vs foreign exchange reserves 35:15・China's dollar denominated debt 36:30・Lyn's outlook for the Chinese stock market 39:24・Lyn's outlook for emerging market's 42:47・The Long Term Debt Cycle 50:27・What is the end game?

It is possible the US hegemony is coming to an end. Lyn focuses on the changes in the energy markets to make a case for the US downfall and a long period of inflation. 

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“Forward Guidance” is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, Jack Farley will be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.

Today's show is with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Lyn will be sharing why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker U.S. Dollar. Alden also shares her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes, and the flurry of new Bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently. 

Timestamps:

00:00・Introduction
00:49・Lyn's macro outlook 
04:00・Lyn's outlook on Bitcoin
05:24・Lyn's outlook on gold
07:20・The first U.S Bitcoin ETF
09:35・Lyn's thoughts on the energy crisis
15:15・Lyn's commodity outlook
18:35・The end game for the U.S Dollar
27:50・Net international investment position of the U.S
31:39・Dollar denominated debt vs foreign exchange reserves
35:15・China's dollar denominated debt
36:30・Lyn's outlook for the Chinese stock market
39:24・Lyn's outlook for emerging market's
42:47・The Long Term Debt Cycle
50:27・What is the end game?

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The Unwinding of the Long Term Debt Cycle | Lyn Alden

The end game for the US dollar

Lyn Alden prediction for financial repression

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