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It's not easy to split people into the good/bad strategy decision-makers.
Imagine recording decision-makers' solutions to a competitive-strategy problem using four categories:
The Now-I-know and the I-already-know are very confident while I-do don't-know and the I-guessed are unsure. The Now-I-know and the I-don't-know are slow in making a strategy-decision while the I-already-know and the I-guessed are fast at making a decision.
A database of business executives, consultants, professors, and students was given the same unfamiliar pricing-strategy problem.
When the overconfident think they already know the answer, they may believe it's a waste of time to keep looking for answers. But in deciding on a strategy, overconfidence may not lead to a workable option.
An essential lesson for competitive-strategy decision-makers is not to be so fast. Take your time and don't be so sure.
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