Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information - Deepstash

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EFFECTIVIOLOGY

Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

effectiviology.com

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Jumping into Conclusions

Jumping to conclusions is a common phenomenon, where people prematurely decide and finalize something, without having sufficient information or choosing not to consider it.

Jumping into Conclusions: Examples

  • Inference-observation confusion: An assumption made that may or may not be correct. Example: Concluding that a guy is rich, based on the car he drives.
  • Fortune-Telling: Assumption of knowing exactly what will happen in the future.
  • Mind Reading:...

Why We Jump to Conclusions

The reason people jump to conclusions is the fact that they find it easy.

Fact-checking and 100 percent accuracy on everything they see or observe consume way too much time for a normal person.

Taking mental shortcuts is the path most people choose to jump to conclusions.

Our Cognitive Bias

People can be biased in many ways and jump into intuitive judgments that may not necessarily be correct. When we need to make a decision quickly, sometimes jumping into a conclusion with insufficient facts maybe the right way to go. Jumping into conclusions becomes problematic when it gets sub-...

The Common Factors

Certain factors increase the chances of people jumping into conclusions:

  • A certain pre-existing belief, which leads to confirmation bias.
  • A desire for closure or certainty in the future course of events.

Mental Disorders

People with mental disorders sometimes are more likely to engage in a premature conclusion. Their inner delusions and paranoid thoughts lead to this behaviour.
But also a big part of the people who believe conspiracy theories (which may or may not be true) falls in...

A Logical Fallacy

While jumping to conclusions is viewed as a cognitive phenomenon, and is unintentional, it can also be a logical fallacy.

This means that the jumping-to-conclusions bias causes people to jump to conclusions when it comes to their internal reasoning process, which in turn causes them to u...

How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions

  • Question the validity of the information.
  • Collect maximum information before reaching any hypothesis.
  • Come up with multiple hypotheses.
  • Don't favor a certain outcome.
  • Find potential flaws in your own reasoning and question your facts....

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