What I Learned from Losing $200 Million - Issue 31: Stress - Nautilus - Deepstash

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What I Learned from Losing $200 Million - Issue 31: Stress - Nautilus

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Stress testing is a standard technique used to test how someone will perform in the "worst-case" scenario. The problem is that the "worst-case" scenario is subjective, causing an illusion of control.

  • It can make a person overconfident in themselves, believing that they have compl...

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Success in “normal” circumstances does not mean that you will succeed in a crisis since, in a crisis, the rules change. However, it can make you feel confident and make you highly vulnerable to the next crisis.

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Your own incentives may support an illusion of control. If you draw up your own worst-case scenarios, you will always pass, but as a result, you will develop blind spots.

Encourage innovation in risk models to increase diversification and decrease risk.

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Stress tests

Stress tests cannot be improved. History is a much better predictor than a stress test. But even history requires a model to interpret it.

We always have a preconception of cause and effect, and therefore some prejudice for how to interpret the data. That does not mean that we shoul...

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The illusion of control can be adaptive, in the sense that it encourages a focus on problem-solving behaviors as opposed to an emotional response.

Producing your best-informed guesswork prevents the anticipation in stress testing. However, there will always be some things you cannot comple...

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