The butterfly effect: the impact of deterministic chaos on our lives
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The Butterfly Effect
Tiny, minute changes in the initial conditions, circumstances and events can have a huge, outsized impact on the final outcome.
The Butterfly Effect, which was made mainstream by the 2004 movie of the same name, takes into account the power of a tiny thing, event or action,(like the flapping of a butterfly wing) that can have a domino effect and turn into something tremendously large in impact.
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No One Can Predict The Weather
- Weather predictions, even with our amazing technological advances, are still laughably wrong.
- The founder of the ‘chaos’ theory, Edward Lorenz, a meteorologist and mathematician, discovered deterministic chaos in 1961 while trying to predict the weather using a simple computer.
- A small decimal number rounding off created a huge difference in the final outcome, leading to the creation of a seminal paper on the Butterfly Effect.
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The Arrow Of Time
We grow older, not younger, and if we break something, it can’t be unbroken. The world, it seems, goes from order to disorder, getting messy every minute.
The arrow of time only goes forward, and any introduction of randomness creates a multiplier effect in the environment, leading to unpredictable things to happen.
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Small Things, Big Results
Cognitive Science has certain dynamic systems where many small mental, behavioural, social and neural changes in neurotransmitters, even in tiny parameters, lead to huge effects in their action and behaviour.
A small change in the marketing mix often results in a large improvement or a sales disaster, as consumer behaviour is often complex and non-rational, making it hard to predict correctly over long periods.
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