Projection bias: how your “emotional temperature” impacts your decisions

It occurs when we are in a “hot” state of mind and incorrectly assume that our current needs will be the same as our future needs. As a result, we tend to make decisions based on how we feel right now instead of how we might feel in the future. 

Another way to think about it is that we tend to make decisions that make sense in the moment, but they don’t always work out the way we anticipated.

• Projection bias can occur because we don’t realize how much exogenous factors — things that happen outside of our control — can influence our decision-making.
• Overestimating impact. When we are faced with significant life events, like moving or changing careers, we often believe that they will have a long-lasting impact on our lives.
• The heat of the moment. We make choices for our future selves based on our current emotional state. If we are calm, cool, and collected, we may have an easier time making rational decisions.