Mental models

A mental model is an explanation of how something works. They are beliefs, worldviews or frameworks of thinking. You carry a certain kind of thinking in you to arrive at a solution to a problem.

Some examples:

• Demand and Supply: to understand the economy
• Game Theory: to understand trust and relationships
• Entropy: to understand disorder and decay

“Scientists generally agree that no theory is 100 percent correct. Thus, the real test of knowledge is not truth, but utility.”

... through everything you do. That's the power of compounding. If you get 1% better at understanding how the world works, how human behavior works, how economic systems function, and understanding your own brain — that 1% improvement impacts everything you do. 

The best kind of knowledge is not ephemeral junk , that will be useless in a few years, but the core pillars of human knowledge and the major academic disciplines. That knowledge changes very slowly over time  and it’s a core foundation that you can build upon and grow from. 

• We’re (sometimes) stupid: irrational, tired or distracted;
• We have the wrong information;
• We use the wrong model;
• We fail to learn;
• We go with what's easy over what's right. 

"… it's important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. We are doing this because it's like something else that was done, or it is like what other people are doing. But with first principles, you boil things down to the most fundamental truths and then reason up from there."

Daniel Kahneman believes there are two systems for organizing and filtering knowledge: 

• System one is real-time. This system makes judgments and decisions before our mental apparatus can consciously catch up. 
• System two, on the other hand, is a slow process of thinking based on critical examination of evidence. Konnikova refers to these as System Watson and System Holmes.

To move from a System Watson- to a System Holmes-governed thinking takes mindfulness plus motivation.

Learning is not a rigidly formal system of precisely labeled steps.

Learning is messy. It’s trial and error. It’s failing and then failing again and then slowly figuring it out.

You can’t borrow someone’s motivation. No matter how many books you read or chants you do you won’t become more motivated.

Motivation comes from inside. It comes from you and nowhere else.

“Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.”

When we read scientific studies, it helps to keep in mind the following:

1. Scientists are prone to error just like everyone else.
2. Single source claims are dubious.
3. There is a lot we don’t know.
4. We should not be biased towards a particular outcome.
5. Independent tests of the findings can be done if possible.
6. Proof of something does not mean it is true, and a lack of proof does not mean it is false.

• Understanding the basics. This is a key element of effective thinking. Understanding a simple idea deeply builds a solid foundation for complex ideas.
• Build your foundation. Be honest with what you really know by using the Feynman Technique (by teaching others). It will reveal any gaps you have in your knowledge.
• Obtain the basic mental models from multiple disciplines. You don't need to understand everything on a subject, but you should understand the basic concepts from various disciplines.
• Understanding the basics allows for a better understanding of second and subsequent order consequences.

This is just a fancy way to say what has been will continue to be.

Time can predict value. Some things, like books, increase in life expectancy as time goes by. If a book has been in print for forty years, we can expect it to be in print for another forty years.

1. Understand deeply: Be brutally honest about what you know and don’t know. Then see what’s missing, identify the gaps, and fill them in.
2. Make mistakes: Mistakes are great teachers; they highlight unforeseen opportunities and holes in your understanding.
3. Raise questions: Constantly create questions to clarify and extend your understanding.
4. Follow the flow of ideas: Look back to see where ideas came from and then look ahead to discover where those ideas may lead.
5. Change: You can always improve, grow, and extract more out of your education, yourself, and the way you live your life.

Paying attention seems to be linked to effort, since deliberate control of attention take effort.

Focus is only hard if we're trying to focus. If our attention is held automatically, focus is not an effort.

Effort could be seen as the opposite of something we do automatically. Effort then is what happens when we try to override an automatic pattern.