Step 4: Analyse housing-related commodity prices

An indicator lagging all others is the commodity price of lumber. When the price of lumber crashes — like in July 2018 — it usual coincides with a peak in house prices. This makes sense: if there’s a decrease in construction demand, prices have to fall to counteract the excess supply.

There may be temporary noise in the media, but the only real factor that affects the price of lumber is supply and demand