I love the thought experiment that you give, which I think elucidates this concept well, which is when you ask people, “What’s the best decision you’ve ever made? What’s the worst decision you’ve ever made?” We tend to not focus on the process by which we made the decision or the inputs to that decision but instead what the outcome was. So what you found is you asked people, “What was the best decision?” Well, they tend to choose the thing that had the best outcome and and vice versa for the bad one. It’s very possible that you made, actually, a really crappy decision, but you just lucked out.
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It’s tough to frame decisions that way, as it’s human nature to base the quality of a decision on the quality of the outcome. They’re related, for sure, but great decisions can go poorly and bad decisions can sometimes work out in your favor.
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