Kinds of Uncertainty - Deepstash

Kinds of Uncertainty

  • Epistemic Uncertainty: Uncertain information and data about the past or present, which can be unraveled by using measuring tools.
  • Aleatory Uncertainty: The unknown things about the future related to randomness, luck, chance or indeterminacy.
  • Deep Uncertainty: Also called radical uncertainty, it is a state in which there are so many unknown things that the future looks like an abyss.

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MORE IDEAS FROM THEARTICLE

In statistical science, risk is an important uncertainty, but a comparing of risks sometimes does not take into account certain human factors, leading to misinformation or even disinformation. This is due to the statistical models being oversimplifications of the real world.

Statistical data is a ‘Map’, not the actual territory.

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Uncertainty triggers an ambiguity aversion (a preference for known risks over unknown risks) among people as they feel unsettled and in limbo due to the lack of sure footing of information.

A study suggests that it is better to be completely transparent about the uncertainty than to be ambiguous.

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An Uncertain World

The ongoing epidemic, due to its unknown nature, has provided us with a lot of uncertainties related to the characteristics, severity, mortality rate, infectious rate and spread of the disease. These uncertainties make it all the more deadly.

Conflicting guidelines (like on the use of masks) and ad hoc statements have made many people skeptical of the experts, in this post-truth society.

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RELATED IDEAS

Facts will minimize your fear. There are two sources to use for managing fear in the new virus response: The World Health Organization and your national authority.

With all the headlines of news outlets, there's a risk of an infodemic where misinformation spreads. It can lead to increased anxiety and fear.

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Taking into account the current situation created by the new virus, disease experts state that we should all consider removing handshakes from our habits from now on, as they could only increase the chances of transmitting the virus. However, this decision is not so easy to be taken, as shaking hands has a high social value in the business environment worldwide: it shows good intentions, trust and follow-through.

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Why We Have An Information Epidemic

We have a never ending stream of information coming at us, leaving our mind exhausted, with no energy left to engage, debate, analyse or refute the epistemic (epidemic of knowledge).

Uncertainty, polarization and misinformation are the three musketeers of this information overload.

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