Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias
This is a professional note extracted from an online article.
Read more efficiently
Save what inspires you
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and new product ventures seldom finish on time.
Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.
When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case scenario.
SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
We surround ourselves with it: We tend to like people who think like us; if we agree with someone's beliefs, we're more likely to be friends with them.
This makes sense, but it means ...
It's a thinking mistake and it occurs when we confuse selection factors with results.
Professional swimmers don't have perfect bodies because they train extensively. Rather, they are good swimmers because of their physiques.
It plays on this tendency of ours to emphasize loss over gain.
The term sunk cost refers to any cost that has been paid already and cannot be recovered. The reason we can't ignore the cost, even though it's already been paid, is that we're wired to feel loss far more strongly than gain.
5 more ideas
"There is no inherent value in any piece of data because all information is meaningless in itself. Why? Because in..."
Our brains like to fill up incomplete information based on our prejudice and confirmation bias.
As all data is inherently incomplete, we use our minds to fill the missing information, based on the existing data we have, and that can go obverse.
4 more ideas
Cognitive Biases are a collection of faulty and illogical ways of thinking which are hardwired in the brain, most of which we aren’t aware of.
The idea of cognitive biases was invented ...
It's a tendency to heavily weigh the moment which is closer to the present, as compared to something in the near or distant future.
Example: If you are offered a choice of $150 right now or $180 after 30 days, you would be more inclined to choose the money you are offered right now. However, if we take the present moment out of the equation, and put this offer in the distant future, where you are offered $150 in 12 months or $180 in 13 months, your choice is likely to be the latter one.
5 more ideas
Survivorship bias is a logical error that twists our understanding of the world and leads to a wrong understanding of cause and effect.
We fall into survivorship bias when we assume that suc...
When we only pay attention to the exception above the normal, we end up misunderstanding reality. While there is much to learn from the anomalies, it would be a mistake to expect the same results from doing the same things.
Survivorship bias leads us to think that coincidence is a correlation. We want the encouragement from survivorship bias so we can believe in our own capabilities, but it results in an inflated idea of how people become successful.
The fact is that success is never guaranteed. It does not mean that we shouldn't try, just that we should have a realistic understanding.
3 more ideas
What’s more important than how much data you have is how it frames the way you think.
Some leader when they're under pressure to appear decisive, approach complex situa...
He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.
His theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.
Data can be imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain. Most of the time, there is more than one explanation for why things happened the way they did; by examining those alternative explanations using probability, you can gain a better understanding of causality and what is really going on.
one more idea
How should we evaluate arguments that people make to persuade us? And how should we construct our own arguments to be the most effective?
At its core, an argument consists of a conclus...
It does not use reasons that contradict each other, contradict the conclusion or explicitly or implicitly assumes the truth of the conclusion. Checklist:
A premise is relevant if it provides some bearing on the truth of the conclusion. Checklist:
4 more ideas
Those that feel they are in control over their lives also feel stress and anxiety, but they use this anxiety differently: their anxiety fuels passion instead of pity, drive in lieu of despair, and tenacity over trepidation.
Set aside some time regularly to create a list of important changes that you think could possibly happen. The purpose of this task is to open your mind to change and sharpen your ability to spot and respond to changes.
Even if the events on your lists never happen, the practice of anticipating and preparing for change will give you a greater sense of command over your future.
4 more ideas
Stories are a very integral part of being persuasive.
Stories trump data when it comes to persuasion because stories are easier to understand and relate to.
Modeling systems are used to provide a better understanding of a bad situation and how to possibly prevent it.
Groups of researchers, teams of engineers and companies are d...
You can never accurately predict what's going to happen. Some efforts come close.
For example, models looking at the weather can achieve more than 90% accuracy. But crises are about change, and a model working from historical data may miss a dramatic and new change.
one more idea
This isn’t just false modesty or fishing for reassurance; some people do believe that they cause every bad thing all or most of the time.
Blaming yourself when something goes wrong might, relates to a general tendency to make internal attributions for failure in which you see yourself as inept, foolish, or irresponsible. That tendency might motivate you to attribute your successes to external factors, such as fate, chance or luck, as well.
Theoretically, anyone who intentionally practices an immoral act is culpable regardless of the consequences. But in most cases, people sign up for what is called “moral luck”.
Moral luck is the belief that you should hold someone to blame only if the action causes harm to others, not for their intent, and according to it, those whose actions bring harm are more culpable.
2 more ideas