Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias - Deepstash
The conjunctive events bias

We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.

We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when somethi...

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Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias

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  • Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. 

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The best plans often fail

A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system. 

The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance...

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Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.

When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions wi...

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Dwight D. Eisenhower

“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

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