The best plans often fail - Deepstash
The best plans often fail

The best plans often fail

A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system. 

The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and new product ventures seldom finish on time.

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MORE IDEAS FROM Unlikely Optimism: The Conjunctive Events Bias

The conjunctive events bias

We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.

We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.

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  • Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot be more probable than A.
  • Likewise, the probability of A and B cannot be higher than the probability of A or B. It is more probable that Linda is a bank teller than that she is a bank teller and active in the feminist movement.

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Dwight D. Eisenhower

“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”

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Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.

When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case scenario.

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RELATED IDEA

We surround ourselves with it: We tend to like people who think like us; if we agree with someone's beliefs, we're more likely to be friends with them.

This makes sense, but it means that we subconsciously begin to ignore or dismiss anything that threatens our world views

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Beau Lotto

"There is no inherent value in any piece of data because all information is meaningless in itself. Why? Because information doesn’t tell you what to do."

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The Way We Delude Ourselves

Cognitive Biases are a collection of faulty and illogical ways of thinking which are hardwired in the brain, most of which we aren’t aware of.

The idea of cognitive biases was invented in the 1970s by two social scientists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, with Kahneman winning the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for the same.

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