History Studied Upside Down - Deepstash

History Studied Upside Down

History is studied wrongly, while we focus on the unprecedented events (The Blips) and use that knowledge as a map of the future.

Instead of studying war and invasions, history needs to be studied upside down, with an emphasis on peace and prosperity.

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MORE IDEAS FROM Permanent Assumptions · Collaborative Fund

  • Stories are more engaging than statistics. A thousand people dead evokes different emotions than the death of that one person whose story we all know.
  • The only thing constant is change, and nothing good or bad stays that way, ever. However, one can never find out what or when the change would be.
  • Incentives can make people do good and bad things. While a group of people can be made smarter, they cannot be made more patient, less greedy during uncertain periods.

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  • People generally want to solve problems than to create harm, but those who want to harm get a lot more attention.

  • While people can be taken advantage of, it can’t be done for an infinite period of time.

  • Every ten years or so, there has to be some economic, political, military or social breakdown, according to historical data.

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Permanent Assumptions

In this world of uncertainties, nothing but death and taxes are sureshot in our lives.

There are however some assumptions that withstand the test of time. These assumptions take into account basic human psychology and historical data.

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RELATED IDEA

Cautiously Optimistic

Our predictions usually seem to fall towards extremes, either too optimistic or too pessimistic. We underestimate how bad things can be in the short term, and how much better they can eventually turn out to be in the longer run. This leads to bad decisions, laughably wrong forecasts and predictions and a lot of confusion.

A reasonably optimistic person is a little cautious, a little cynical, and expects surprises, setbacks, bewilderment and disappointment.

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Some downsides are unavoidable

Life is a little easier if you expect a certain chunk of it to go wrong no matter how hard you try.

Smart people screw up. Good people have bad days. Nice people lose their temper.

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Most of us understand probability and the likelihood of certain things to happen, or not happening, but still do not fully believe in it. For us, it’s about right and wrong, black or white.

Example: Nate Silver(a numbers guy) said in 2016 that Hillary Clinton has a 72 percent chance to win. This didn’t mean he was wrong when Clinton lost, but most people believed he was.

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