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Can you learn to navigate uncertainty?
Humility
Working with an open mind, ready to dive into unfamiliar territory and learning new things, makes the entire exercise stress-free and rewarding experience. This state of mind, along with basic humility makes for better performance. One’s arrogance, ego and past can negatively affect the prediction quality.
A humble attitude also makes people listen to others opinions and share their own unique insights, helping collaboration and constructive teamwork.
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The Self-Perception of Experts
New research on the accuracy of future predictions by people has some interesting findings:
- Experts, largely considered an authority, fared poorly than the novices, due to their overestimating their abilities, something known as the Dunning Kruger Effect.
- People who considered themselves more experienced or educated turned out to be closed-minded and more unlikely to learn from others, leading to a myopic or distorted view of the world around them.
Facing Change: Millennials Vs Boomers
Past experience, which many experts think helps them to better understand the world, surprisingly does not improve the ability to predict the future. The research data showed accuracy levels of the younger generation (25 to 35 years of age) being the highest.
Old people are slower to comprehend change, faster to believe and share fake news and less likely to be objective.
Humility
Working with an open mind, ready to dive into unfamiliar territory and learning new things, makes the entire exercise stress-free and rewarding experience. This state of mind, along with basic humility makes for better performance. One’s arrogance, ego and past can negatively affect the prediction quality.
A humble attitude also makes people listen to others opinions and share their own unique insights, helping collaboration and constructive teamwork.
Disagreements Are Good
While we talk to people we disagree with, without getting personal, we tend to learn new insights and ways of thinking.
In contrast, if we only expose ourselves to people who think like us and share our worldview, we start living in an echo chamber, away from reality.
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We use our memories to imagine the future
We predict what the future will look like by using our memories. This is how actions we do repeatedly become routine. For example, you have an ideas of what your day will look like at work tomorrow based on what your day was like today, and all the other days you’ve spent working.
But memory also helps people predict what it will be like to do things they haven’t done before.
Past and future for amnesia patients
An evidence that memory and imagining the future might go hand in hand comes from research related to amnesia patients. Studies show that when they lose their pasts, it seems they lose their futures as well.
Functional MRI scans made possible for researchers to discover that many of the same brain structures are involved in both remembering and forecasting.
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Affective forecasting
It refers to how we predict our future emotions and how certain life events will affect them.
We’re generally pretty bad at it—and that impacts our productivity, our goal setting, and ...
We're bad at predicting our feelings
The main barriers to accurate affective forecasting:
- Impact Bias: Your tendency to overestimate the intensity and duration of future emotions.
- Projection Bias: However you feel in the present, you tend to project that onto the future.
- Focalism: When picturing an event in the future, you tend to focus only on that event, to the exclusion of everything else that may happen.
“Our ability to look into the future and think about what will make us most happy is the way that we get to a present that pleases us.”
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Scenario planning
It aims to define your critical uncertainties and develop plausible scenarios in order to discuss the impacts and the responses to give for each one of them. If you are aware of what could h...
How to use scenario planning
- Identify your driving forces: the big shifts in society, economics, technology and politics in the future and see how it will affect your company.
- Identify your critical uncertainties: pick 1-2 of the driving forces (with the most impact).
- Develop a range of plausible scenarios: Form a kind of matrix with your two critical uncertainties as axis and depending on what direction each of the uncertainties will take, you are now able to draw four possible scenarios for the future.
- Discuss the implications: discuss the various implications and impacts of each scenario and start to reconsider your strategy: set your mission and your goals while taking into account every scenario.
Some pitfalls to avoid
- Don't fall into the trap is to be paralyzed by the multitude of possibilities. Keep it simple and focus on two major uncertainties.
- Don't believe that you have to choose one particular scenario and build your strategy around it. Scenario planning is not about choosing just one option for the future but rather dealing with all of the possible outcomes to develop a strategy that will stand the test of all scenarios.
- When developing your different scenarios, try to not look at the short term. Do not hesitate to look far ahead, anticipating what the market and competitors are going to be over the next years.